In logistics, we used to talk about Just-in-Time. In May 2026, the conversation has shifted to something more fundamental: can your shipment move at all?
Since late February, the Strait of Hormuz — through which roughly 20% of the world's daily oil trade and a significant share of global container cargo has historically flowed — has been effectively closed to most commercial shipping. Maersk, CMA CGM, MSC and Hapag-Lloyd have all suspended transits. War-risk insurance premiums have risen four to five times their pre-crisis rates. Jebel Ali Port is experiencing significant congestion as vessels that would normally pass through Hormuz are diverted or anchored offshore.
The Double Chokepoint
The Hormuz closure has compounded an already difficult situation. The Red Sea route has been operating at reduced capacity since Houthi attacks resumed on February 28. For the first time in modern history, both of the region's major maritime corridors are simultaneously disrupted.
Strait of Hormuz
Traffic has fallen to roughly 5% of pre-war average. Over 1,500 vessels and 20,000 seafarers are stranded in the Persian Gulf. Emergency conflict surcharges are running into thousands of dollars per container where cover is available at all.
Red Sea / Suez
Houthi attacks resumed on February 28, reversing fragile gains made since late 2025. Vessels are again routing around the Cape of Good Hope, adding 10–14 days to Europe-Asia transit times and further straining global capacity.
Air Freight
With sea routes disrupted, demand for air cargo capacity has surged. Belly space on passenger flights out of Dubai is at a premium. Rates on key lanes have increased and booking lead times have extended.
Jebel Ali Congestion
Diverted vessels and reduced outbound capacity have created congestion at Jebel Ali. Importers and exporters should expect delays and be in active contact with their freight forwarder on each shipment.
The Fujairah and Khor Fakkan Pivot
The most significant operational shift has been a rapid reorientation toward the UAE's east coast ports — Fujairah and Khor Fakkan — both of which sit on the Gulf of Oman, outside the Strait of Hormuz entirely.
The numbers tell the story. Khor Fakkan's weekly container handling surged from around 2,000 containers before the crisis to over 50,000. Daily truck movements at Fujairah went from roughly 100 to nearly 7,000 per day. UAE trucking volumes are up 30% or more since the closure. Etihad Rail's freight corridor to Fujairah transported over 8,000 containers in the first weeks of the crisis alone, and its carbon advantage — 70–80% lower emissions per trip than road freight — makes it the greener option as well as a practical one.
The UAE-Oman Green Corridor, activated on 14 March, enables bonded transit through Oman for cargo destined for Jebel Ali or Dubai airports. A further Saudi-UAE trade bridge between Khor Fakkan and Dammam was announced on 22 March, opening additional routing options for GCC-bound cargo.
The east coast pivot is real and functioning — but it has limits. Fujairah and Khor Fakkan were not built to absorb Jebel Ali's volumes. The Etihad Rail network to Fujairah is operational but capacity is constrained. These are workable routes for many shipments, but they require more lead time, more coordination, and realistic expectations about transit times.
Three Practical Priorities Right Now
- Know your routing options before you need them. If your supply chain currently depends on Jebel Ali as the only entry or exit point, speak to your freight forwarder now about Fujairah, Khor Fakkan, and Oman Green Corridor options.
- Scrutinise your freight invoices. War-risk premiums, emergency conflict surcharges, and fuel surcharges are all fluctuating. A quote from two weeks ago may not reflect today's reality. Ask your forwarder to break out every surcharge and confirm validity dates before committing.
- Build lead time into your planning. Whether routing through Fujairah, overland from Oman, or via air, the current environment requires more buffer than normal. Supply chains running on minimal lead times need to be reviewed.
Concerned About Your Current Shipping Lanes?
We are offering a free Route Resilience Review for UAE importers and exporters — a straight assessment of your current routing exposure and the practical alternatives available to you right now.
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